Forecasting and Management of Technology, Second Edition

9.2 Impacts on Technology and Impacts of Technology

The distinction between impacts on technology and impacts of technology is both useful and important. Impacts on a technology are societal constraints, facilitators, and direction changers from outside the developing organization that may mold the form of the technology and alter its implementation. For example, impacts on U.S. stem cell technology development included government restrictions due to the moral objections of a significant segment of the population. Impacts of a technology are the effects of the developed technology on its users and the broader societal environment. For example, impacts of stem cell technologies may include decreases in mortality rates from some diseases and the reduced use of other therapies.

Impacts on a technology may affect it at any stage of its life cycle, even in its maturity. For instance, the automobile ended horse and buggy technology (except among the Amish). Impacts of a technology result from its broad utilization after development. In a technology forecast, the study of impacts on it is helpful in understanding the shape the technology implementation may take. Likewise, understanding the impacts of technology helps the forecaster understand how users and society as a whole are impacted by the technology and thus how they will react to it. A feedback loop often exists since impacts of the technology may lead to impacts on it, such as modifications to mitigate its negative impacts or ...