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Fisher Investments on Technology

Book Description

The sixth installment of the Fisher Investments On series is a comprehensive guide to understanding and analyzing investment opportunities within the Technology sector. Fisher Investments on Technology can help you quickly become familiar with this highly diversified sector, how the sector is segmented by industries, their respective macroeconomic drivers, and the challenges facing Technology firms.

This reliable guide skillfully addresses how to determine optimal times to invest in Technology stocks, and which industries and sub-industries have the potential to perform well in various environments. The global Technology sector is complex, including a variety of sub-industries and countries—each with their own unique characteristics. Using the framework found here, you'll discover how to identify these differences, spot opportunities, and avoid major pitfalls.

Fisher Investments on Technology:

  • Discusses industry fundamentals, drivers, attributes, and potential challenges

  • Addresses the challenges unique to Technology and some common pitfalls to avoid.

  • Delves into top-down investment methodology as well as individual security analysis.

  • Outlines a five-step process to help differentiate Technology firms—designed to help you identify ones that may have greatest probability of outperforming

  • Provides investment strategies for a variety of market environments

Filled with in-depth insights and expert advice, Fisher Investments on Technology provides a framework for understanding this sector and its industries to help you make better investment decisions—now and in the future. With this book as your guide, you can gain a global perspective of the Technology sector and discover strategies to help achieve your investing goals.

Table of Contents

  1. Copyright
  2. Foreword
  3. Preface
    1. USING YOUR TECHNOLOGY GUIDE
  4. Acknowledgments
  5. I. GETTING STARTED IN TECHNOLOGY
    1. 1. TECHNOLOGY BASICS
      1. 1.1. MORE THAN GADGETS . . . A MEANS
      2. 1.2. TECHNOLOGY 101
      3. 1.3. STARTING SMALL: SEMICONDUCTORS
        1. 1.3.1. Types of Semiconductors and End Market Applications
        2. 1.3.2. End-Market Applications
      4. 1.4. GETTING LARGER: PRODUCTS AND COMPONENTS
        1. 1.4.1. Computer Hardware
        2. 1.4.2. Communications Equipment
        3. 1.4.3. Consumer Electronics
      5. 1.5. MAKING IT ALL WORK: SOFTWARE AND SERVICES
        1. 1.5.1. Operating System
        2. 1.5.2. Application Software
        3. 1.5.3. Middleware
        4. 1.5.4. Internet Software
        5. 1.5.5. IT Services
    2. 2. A BRIEF HISTORY OF MODERN TECHNOLOGY
      1. 2.1. THE SNOWBALL EVENT: HISTORY OF SEMICONDUCTORS
        1. 2.1.1. Eureka! A Half-Way Conductor!
        2. 2.1.2. The Dawn of Integrated Circuits
        3. 2.1.3. Initial Applications
        4. 2.1.4. A Giant in the Making
        5. 2.1.5. The Microprocessor
        6. 2.1.6. Rise of Japan and Asia
        7. 2.1.7. The New Millennium
      2. 2.2. HISTORY OF COMPUTERS
        1. 2.2.1. Early Origins
        2. 2.2.2. Big Blue
        3. 2.2.3. The PC
        4. 2.2.4. Attack of the Clones
        5. 2.2.5. A New Revolution in PC Manufacturing
        6. 2.2.6. Upgrade Cycles
      3. 2.3. HISTORY OF COMMUNICATIONS
        1. 2.3.1. Mobile Phones
        2. 2.3.2. Battle for the Top
        3. 2.3.3. Smartphones
      4. 2.4. HISTORY OF THE INTERNET
        1. 2.4.1. Early Origins
        2. 2.4.2. Commercialization
        3. 2.4.3. The Dot-com Era
        4. 2.4.4. The Boom
        5. 2.4.5. The Bust
        6. 2.4.6. The Aftermath
    3. 3. TECHNOLOGY SECTOR DRIVERS
      1. 3.1. ECONOMIC DRIVERS
        1. 3.1.1. Economic Growth
        2. 3.1.2. Fixed Investment
        3. 3.1.3. Consumer Spending
        4. 3.1.4. Inflation
        5. 3.1.5. Share Supply
        6. 3.1.6. Innovation & Upgrade Cycles
        7. 3.1.7. Exchange Rates
      2. 3.2. POLITICAL DRIVERS
        1. 3.2.1. Taxes
        2. 3.2.2. Intellectual Property Rights
        3. 3.2.3. Trade Policy
        4. 3.2.4. Industrial Policy
      3. 3.3. SENTIMENT DRIVERS
        1. 3.3.1. Beta
        2. 3.3.2. Professional Market Forecasts
  6. II. NEXT STEPS: TECHNOLOGY DETAILS
    1. 4. TECHNOLOGY SECTOR BREAKDOWN
      1. 4.1. GLOBAL INDUSTRY CLASSIFICATION STANDARD (GICS)
      2. 4.2. GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY BENCHMARKS
        1. 4.2.1. Differences in Benchmarks
        2. 4.2.2. Industry Weights
        3. 4.2.3. A Concentrated Group
      3. 4.3. TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY BREAKDOWN
        1. 4.3.1. Computers & Peripherals
        2. 4.3.2. Communications Equipment
        3. 4.3.3. Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
        4. 4.3.4. Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components
        5. 4.3.5. IT Services
        6. 4.3.6. Internet Software & Services
        7. 4.3.7. Office Electronics
    2. 5. CHALLENGES IN THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SECTOR
      1. 5.1. PRODUCT MATURITY AND OBSOLESCENCE
      2. 5.2. FIGHTING MATURITY AND OBSOLESCENCE
        1. 5.2.1. Innovation
        2. 5.2.2. Mergers & Acquisitions
        3. 5.2.3. New Business Models
        4. 5.2.4. Restructuring/Cost Cutting
      3. 5.3. EXTREME FLUCTUATIONS IN SUPPLY AND DEMAND
        1. 5.3.1. Semiconductors
        2. 5.3.2. Semiconductor Equipment
      4. 5.4. INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY THREATS
        1. 5.4.1. Piracy
        2. 5.4.2. Competition
    3. 6. A DEEPER LOOK AT CURRENT AND EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES
      1. 6.1. SEMICONDUCTOR PRODUCTION PROCESS
        1. 6.1.1. First Things First—Silicon Wafers
        2. 6.1.2. Chip Production Today
      2. 6.2. EMERGING MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGIES
        1. 6.2.1. Immersion Lithography
        2. 6.2.2. High-k Dielectrics
      3. 6.3. COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY
        1. 6.3.1. Emerging PC Technology—Solid State Drives
        2. 6.3.2. Enterprise Storage Technology
        3. 6.3.3. Other Notable Emerging Technologies
  7. III. THINKING LIKE A PORTFOLIO MANAGER
    1. 7. THE TOP-DOWN METHOD
      1. 7.1. INVESTING IS A SCIENCE
      2. 7.2. EINSTEIN'S BRAIN AND THE STOCK MARKET
      3. 7.3. THE TOP-DOWN METHOD
        1. 7.3.1. Top-Down Means Thinking 70-20-10
        2. 7.3.2. Benchmarks
      4. 7.4. TOP-DOWN DECONSTRUCTED
        1. 7.4.1. Step 1: Analyze Portfolio Drivers and Country and Sector Selection
        2. 7.4.2. Step 2: Quantitative Factor Screening
        3. 7.4.3. Strict Criteria
        4. 7.4.4. Broad Criteria
        5. 7.4.5. Step 3: Stock Selection
      5. 7.5. MANAGING AGAINST A TECHNOLOGY BENCHMARK
    2. 8. SECURITY ANALYSIS
      1. 8.1. MAKE YOUR SELECTION
      2. 8.2. A FIVE-STEP PROCESS
        1. 8.2.1. Step 1: Understand Business and Earnings Drivers
        2. 8.2.2. Step 2: Identify Strategic Attributes
        3. 8.2.3. Step 3: Analyze Fundamental and Stock Price Performance
        4. 8.2.4. Step 4: Identify Risks
        5. 8.2.5. Step 5: Analyze Valuations and Consensus Expectations
      3. 8.3. IMPORTANT QUESTIONS TO ASK
        1. 8.3.1. Software Industry
        2. 8.3.2. Computers & Peripherals Industry
        3. 8.3.3. Communications Equipment Industry
        4. 8.3.4. Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Industry
        5. 8.3.5. IT Services Industry
        6. 8.3.6. Internet Software & Services Industry
        7. 8.3.7. Electronic Equipment & Instruments Industry
        8. 8.3.8. Office Electronics Industry
    3. 9. UPGRADING YOUR PORTFOLIO—INVESTING STRATEGIES
      1. 9.1. STRATEGY 1: ADDING VALUE AT THE SECTOR LEVEL
        1. 9.1.1. Implementing Sector Over- and Underweights
      2. 9.2. STRATEGY 2: ADDING VALUE AT THE INDUSTRY LEVEL
        1. 9.2.1. Implementing Industry Over- and Underweights
      3. 9.3. STRATEGY 3: ADDING VALUE AT THE SECURITY LEVEL
      4. 9.4. STRATEGY 4: ADDING VALUE IN A TECHNOLOGY SECTOR DOWNTURN
        1. 9.4.1. Implementing Your Defensive Strategy
      5. 9.5. STRATEGY 5: VENTURE CAPITAL
      6. 9.6. GOOD LUCK!
  8. Glossary
  9. Notes
    1. CHAPTER 1: TECHNOLOGY BASICS
    2. CHAPTER 2: A BRIEF HISTORY OF MODERN TECHNOLOGY
    3. CHAPTER 3: TECHNOLOGY SECTOR DRIVERS
    4. CHAPTER 4: TECHNOLOGY SECTOR BREAKDOWN
    5. CHAPTER 5: CHALLENGES IN THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SECTOR
    6. CHAPTER 6: A DEEPER LOOK AT CURRENT & EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES
    7. CHAPTER 7: THE TOP-DOWN METHOD
    8. CHAPTER 9: UPGRADING YOUR PORTFOLIO: INVESTING STRATEGIES
  10. About the Authors