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Fire Your Stock Analyst! Analyzing Stocks on Your Own

Book Description

In Fire Your Stock Analyst!, San Francisco Chronicle investment columnist Harry Domash presents a start-to-finish approach to stock selection that draws on winning techniques from the world's top money managers, uses readily available information, and is easy to implement. Learn how to select stocks based on value, growth, and momentum strategies; assess valuation, profitability, risk, business plans, management, and upside/downside potential; decide when to sell; and much more. You'll find everything you need to become a more successful - and self-reliant - investor!

Table of Contents

  1. Copyright
  2. FT Prentice Hall FINANCIAL TIMES
  3. Financial Times Prentice Hall Books
  4. Figure Credits
  5. Introduction
  6. Acknowledgments
  7. Getting Started
    1. The Analysis Process
      1. Finding Candidates
      2. Analyzing Stocks
      3. Quick Prequalify
      4. Detailed Analysis
      5. When to Sell
      6. Summary
    2. Evaluating Risk
      1. Portfolio Risk
      2. Does Low Valuation Equal Low Risk?
      3. So What?
      4. Market Risk
      5. Market Valuation
      6. Market Direction
      7. Spotting Strong Industries in a Weak Market
      8. Company-Specific Risks
      9. Company-Specific Risks Described in Subsequent Chapters
      10. Summary
    3. Screening
      1. Quicken Growth Screen
      2. Quicken Value Screen
      3. “MSN Money” Down & Out Value Stock Finder
      4. Multex Investor Bulletproof Stocks
      5. The Zen of Screening
      6. Premade Screens
      7. Summary
  8. Analysis Tools
    1. Analysis Tool #1: Analyzing Analysts' Data
      1. Who Are the Analysts?
      2. Analysts' Ratings
      3. “Sell” Is a Four-Letter Word
      4. Consensus Ratings
      5. Do Strong Buys Outperform Sells?
      6. Number of Analysts
      7. Sentiment Index
      8. Analysts' Estimates
      9. Forecast EPS Trend
      10. Earnings Surprise
      11. Sales Forecasts
      12. Regulation FD
      13. Research Reports
      14. Summary
    2. Analysis Tool #2: Valuation
      1. Implied Growth
      2. Growth at a Reasonable Price
      3. Dividends
      4. Summary
    3. Analysis Tool #3: Establishing Target Prices
      1. The Process
      2. Cisco Systems
      3. Summary
    4. Analysis Tool #4: Industry Analysis
      1. The Business
      2. Industry Growth Outlook
      3. Industry Concentration
      4. Picking Winners in an Emerging Fragmented Industry
      5. Industry Scuttlebutt
      6. Summary
    5. Analysis Tool #5: Business Plan Analysis
      1. Introduction
      2. Overblown Competitive Advantages
      3. Business Plan Score Scorecard
      4. Summary
    6. Analysis Tool # 6: Management Quality
      1. Key Executive and Board Quality
      2. Clean Accounting
      3. Earnings Growth Stability
      4. Stock Ownership
      5. Summary
    7. Analysis Tool #7: Financial Fitness Evaluator
      1. Financial Fitness Counts
      2. Pinpointing Financially Challenged Companies
      3. Simplify the Problem
      4. Low Debt
      5. Detecting Potential Busted Cash Burners
      6. Detailed Fiscal Fitness Exam
      7. Bond Ratings
      8. Use Bond Risk Premiums to Identify Risky Debtors
      9. Summary
    8. Analysis Tool #8: Profitability Analysis
      1. Where Do Earnings Come From?
      2. Analyzing Sales (Revenue) History
      3. Analyzing Margins
      4. Gross Margin
      5. Operating Margin
      6. Net Profit Margin
      7. Comparing Margins
      8. Gross Margins
      9. Operating Margins
      10. Analyzing Margins
      11. High vs. Low Margins
      12. Analyzing Overhead Expenses
      13. Profitability Ratios
      14. Marginal Return on Assets
      15. Cash Flow Analysis
      16. EBITDA vs. Operating Cash Flow
      17. Free EBITDA
      18. Summary
    9. Analysis Tool #9: Detecting Red Flags
      1. Sales Growth Trends
      2. Accounts Receivables & Inventories
      3. Statement of Cash Flows
      4. Pension Plan Income
      5. Yellow Flags
      6. Summary
    10. Step 10: Ownership Considerations
      1. Institutional Ownership
      2. Insider Ownership
      3. Summary
    11. Tool # 11: Price Charts
      1. Trends
      2. Moving Averages
      3. Avoid Downtrends
      4. The Risk Zone
      5. Chart Types
      6. Trading Volume
      7. Summary
  9. The Analysis Process
    1. Quick Prequalify
      1. COSC: Concentrate On the Strongest Candidates
      2. Company Overview
      3. Snapshot Report
      4. Valuation Ratios
      5. Highlights Report
      6. Ratio Comparison
      7. Check the Buzz
      8. Summary
    2. Value Investing: The Process
      1. COSC: Concentrate On the Strongest Candidates
      2. Cycles
      3. Normalizing
      4. Value Analysis Process
      5. Step 1: Analysts' Ratings & Forecasts
      6. Step 2: Valuation
      7. Step 3: Target Price Ranges
      8. Step 4: Industry Analysis
      9. Step 5: Business Plan Analysis
      10. Step 6: Management Quality
      11. Step 7: Financial Health
      12. Step 8: Profitability Analysis
      13. Step 9: Red Flags
      14. Step 10: Ownership
      15. Step 11: Charts
      16. When to Sell
      17. Summary
    3. Growth Investing: The Process
      1. COSC: Concentrate On the Strongest Candidates
      2. Growth Candidates
      3. The Process
      4. Step 1: Analysts' Ratings & Forecasts
      5. Step 2: Valuation
      6. Step 3: Target Prices
      7. Step 4: Industry Analysis
      8. Step 5: Business Plan Analysis
      9. Step 6: Management Quality
      10. Step 7: Financial Health
      11. Step 8: Profitability
      12. Step 9: Red Flags
      13. Step 10: Ownership
      14. Step 11: Price Chart
      15. Summary
      16. When to Sell
      17. Summary
  10. More Tools
    1. Earnings Reports & Conference Calls
      1. Reported Earnings
      2. Summary
    2. Detecting Scams, Frauds, and Pump & Dump
      1. Opportunity Knocks
      2. Shoestring Operation
      3. Hyping Pays Well
      4. Quick Hype Checks
      5. Summary
    3. How to Read Financial Statements
      1. Income Statement
      2. Balance Sheet
      3. Statement of Cash Flows
      4. Finding the Data
      5. Pro Forma Accounting vs. GAAP
    4. Analysis Scorecards
      1. Value Stock Analysis Scorecard
      2. Growth Stock Analysis Scorecard
    5. Glossary