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Endgame: The End of the Debt SuperCycle and How It Changes Everything

Book Description

Greece isn't the only country drowning in debt. The Debt Supercycle—when the easily managed, decades-long growth of debt results in a massive sovereign debt and credit crisis—is affecting developed countries around the world, including the United States. For these countries, there are only two options, and neither is good—restructure the debt or reduce it through austerity measures. Endgame details the Debt Supercycle and the sovereign debt crisis, and shows that, while there are no good choices, the worst choice would be to ignore the deleveraging resulting from the credit crisis. The book:

  • Reveals why the world economy is in for an extended period of sluggish growth, high unemployment, and volatile markets punctuated by persistent recessions

  • Reviews global markets, trends in population, government policies, and currencies

  • Around the world, countries are faced with difficult choices. Endgame provides a framework for making those choices.

Table of Contents

  1. Cover
  2. Contents
  3. Title
  4. Copyright
  5. Dedication
  6. Acknowledgments
  7. Introduction: Endgame
  8. Part One: The End of the Debt Supercycle
    1. Chapter 1: The Beginning of the End
      1. How Did the Debt Supercycle Come About?
      2. Private Deleveraging and Public Leveraging Up
    2. Chapter 2: Why Greece Matters
      1. What Does Greece Mean to Me, Dad?
    3. Chapter 3: Let’s Look at the Rules
      1. Six Impossible Things
      2. Delta Force
      3. Killing the Goose
      4. But It’s More Than the Deficit
      5. Not Everyone Can Run a Surplus
      6. Pity the Greeks
      7. The Competitive Currency Devaluation Raceway
      8. Final Thoughts...
    4. Chapter 4: The Burden of Lower Growth and More Frequent Recessions
      1. Three Structural Changes
      2. Lower Growth, Fewer Jobs, Bigger Deficits, Lower Returns
    5. Chapter 5: This Time Is Different
      1. A Crisis of Confidence
      2. It’s the Deleveraging, Stupid!
      3. Some Parting Words from Rogoff and Reinhart
    6. Chapter 6: The Future of Public Debt
      1. A Bit of Background
      2. Drastic Measures
      3. The Future Public Debt Trajectory
      4. Debt Projections
      5. The Challenge for Central Banks
      6. Bang, Indeed!
      7. The Center Cannot Hold
      8. Who Takes the Loss?
    7. Chapter 7: The Elements of Deflation
      1. The Supertrend Puzzle
      2. The Elements of Deflation: What Deflation Looks Like
      3. The Velocity of Money
      4. A Slowdown in Velocity
      5. The Roadmap Ahead: Bernanke’s Helicopter Speech
      6. There Are No Good Choices
    8. Chapter 8: Inflation and Hyperinflation
      1. A Dose of Inflation
      2. The Characteristics of Hyperinflations
      3. The Dangers of Inflation
      4. The Problems of Inflation
      5. Hyperinflation in the United States?
  9. Part Two: A World Tour: Who Will Face Endgame First?
    1. Chapter 9: The United States
      1. Yes, We’re Screwed
      2. Congress: Blind, Ignorant, and Indifferent
      3. What Does It All Mean?
      4. The Kindness of Strangers
      5. Endgame for the United States
      6. The Present Contains All Possible Futures
      7. Some Policy Suggestions
    2. Chapter 10: The European Periphery
      1. The Euro: A Suboptimal Currency Union
      2. Some Countries Recover; Others Don’t
    3. Chapter 11: Eastern European Problems
      1. Hungary: Damned If They Do, Damned If They Don’t
      2. The Baltics: How to Destroy Your Economy and Keep Your Peg
    4. Chapter 12: Japan
      1. The Mother of All Bubbles
      2. Japanese Government: Spending Money Like There Is No Tomorrow
      3. Japan’s Endgame
    5. Chapter 13: The United Kingdom
      1. The United Kingdom Economy: Not as Safe as Houses
      2. Northern Rock: A Modern Bank Run
      3. The United Kingdom’s Endgame: Higher Inflation Ahead
    6. Chapter 14: Australia
      1. The Lucky Country
      2. A House of Cards
    7. Chapter 15: Unintended Consequences
      1. Bubbles in Emerging Markets
      2. Difficult Choices
  10. Conclusion: Investing and Profiting from Endgame
  11. Epilogue: Some Final Thoughts
  12. Notes
  13. About the Authors
  14. Index