“I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies but not the movements of the stock market.”
—Isaac Newton, after being wiped out in a stock market crash in 1768
Past performance does not predict future returns.
We have all seen this warning. If past performance does not predict future returns, then what does predict future returns? You do. Your returns are far more dependent on your behavior as an investor than on fund performance. Mabel Newcomer, former Vassar economics department professor, and consultant to the U.S. Treasury and International Monetary Fund, had an elegant way of putting it: “Have the courage to stand aside ...