4.4. Example: prediction of an autoregressive process AR (1)

Let us consider the WSS process images defined by images and solution of the equation XK = qXK−1 + BK with q which is real such that |q| < 1 and where BZ is a white noise of power images.

In the preceding chapter we calculated its covariance function and obtained:

images

Having observed r.v. X1, …, XK−1, we are seeking the best linear estimate and in the quadratic mean images of images and images verify:

images

i.e.

images

We have the solution images and this solution is unique as the determinant ...

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