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Demand and Supply Integration, 2nd Edition

Book Description

Supply chain professionals: master pioneering techniques for integrating demand and supply, and create demand forecasts that are far more accurate and useful! In Demand and Supply Integration, Dr. Mark Moon presents the specific design characteristics of a world-class demand forecasting management process, showing how to effectively integrate demand forecasting within a comprehensive Demand and Supply Integration (DSI) process. Writing for supply chain professionals in any business, government agency, or military procurement organization, Moon explains what DSI is, how it differs from approaches such as SandOP, and how to recognize the symptoms of failures to sufficiently integrate demand and supply. He outlines the key characteristics of successful DSI implementations, shows how to approach Demand Forecasting as a management process, and guides you through understanding, selecting, and applying the best available qualitative and quantitative forecasting techniques. You'll learn how to thoroughly reflect market intelligence in your forecasts; measure your forecasting performance; implement state-of-the-art demand forecasting systems; manage Demand Reviews, and much more.

Table of Contents

  1. Cover
  2. Title Page
  3. Copyright
  4. Contents
  5. Chapter 1: The Case for Business Integration
    1. What Is Integration?
      1. Communication
      2. Coordination
      3. Collaboration
      4. Integration
    2. Where Can Integration Occur?
    3. How Does Integration Occur?
      1. Organizational Structure
      2. Integrative Processes
      3. Organizational Culture
    4. Summary
  6. Chapter 2: Demand/Supply Integration
    1. The Idea Behind DSI
    2. How DSI Is Different from S&OP
    3. Signals that Demand and Supply Are Not Effectively Integrated
    4. The Ideal Picture of Demand Supply Integration
    5. DSI Across the Supply Chain
    6. Typical DSI Aberrations
    7. DSI Principles
      1. DSI Should Be Demand Driven
      2. DSI Should Be Collaborative
      3. DSI Should Be Disciplined
    8. Critical Components of DSI
      1. Portfolio and Product Review
      2. Demand Review
      3. Supply Review
      4. Reconciliation Review
      5. Executive DSI Review
    9. Characteristics of Successful DSI Implementations
    10. Summary
  7. Chapter 3: World-Class Demand/Supply Integration
    1. Integrative Processes
      1. Product and Portfolio Review
      2. Demand Review
      3. Supply Review
      4. Reconciliation (Financial) Review
      5. Executive Review
    2. Organizational Structure
      1. Where Does DSI Report?
      2. Organizational Oversight
    3. A Culture that Fosters Integration
      1. Bottom-Up Drivers of Culture
      2. Top-Down Drivers of Culture: Functional Area Culture Effect on Integration
    4. Summary
  8. Chapter 4: Forecasting as a Management Process
    1. What Is Demand Forecasting?
    2. Definition of Key Terms
      1. Forecasting Level
      2. Forecasting Horizon
      3. Forecasting Interval
      4. Forecasting Form
    3. How Forecasts Are Used by Different Functions in the Firm
    4. The Forecasting Hierarchy
    5. Managing the Forecasting Process
      1. The Nature of the Customer Base
      2. The Nature of the Available Data
      3. The Nature of the Products
    6. The Role of Forecasting Systems
    7. Forecasting Techniques
    8. The Need to Measure Performance
    9. Summary
  9. Chapter 5: Quantitative Forecasting Techniques
    1. The Role of Quantitative Forecasting
    2. Time-Series Analysis
      1. Naïve Forecast
      2. Average as a Time-Series Technique
      3. Moving Average as a Time-Series Technique
      4. Exponential Smoothing
    3. Regression Analysis
    4. Summary
  10. Chapter 6: Qualitative Forecasting
    1. What Is Qualitative Forecasting?
    2. Who Does Qualitative Forecasting?
    3. Advantages and Problems with Qualitative Forecasting
      1. Advantages of Qualitative Forecasting Techniques
      2. Problems with Qualitative Forecasting Techniques
      3. Summary: Qualitative Technique Advantages and Problems
    4. Qualitative Techniques and Tools
      1. Jury of Executive Opinion
      2. Delphi Method
      3. Sales Force Composite
    5. Summary
  11. Chapter 7: Incorporating Market Intelligence into the Forecast
    1. What Is Market Intelligence?
    2. Bottom-up Versus Top-Down Forecasts
    3. What Do Demand Forecasters Need to Do?
    4. Customer-Generated Forecasts
      1. Types of Customers and Forecasts
      2. Issues with Customer-Generated Forecasts
      3. Summary of Customer-Generated Forecasts
    5. Putting It All Together into a Final Forecast
    6. Summary
  12. Chapter 8: Performance Measurement
    1. Why Bother Measuring Forecasting Performance?
    2. Process Metrics Versus Outcome Metrics
    3. Measuring Forecasting Performance
      1. The Building Block: Percent Error
      2. Identifying Bias
      3. Measuring Accuracy
    4. Outcome Metrics—The Results of Forecasting Excellence
    5. Summary
  13. Chapter 9: World-Class Demand Forecasting
    1. Dimension 1: Functional Integration
      1. DSI Processes
      2. Organization
      3. Accountability
      4. Role of Forecasting versus Planning
      5. Training
      6. Summary: How Companies Can Improve on the Dimension of Functional Integration
    2. Dimension 2: Approach
      1. Forecasting Point of View
      2. What Is Being Forecasted?
      3. Forecasting Hierarchy
      4. Statistical Analysis
      5. Incorporation of Qualitative Input
      6. Summary: How Companies Can Improve on the Dimension of Approach
    3. Dimension 3: Systems
      1. Level of Integration
      2. Access to Performance Measurement Reports
      3. Data Integrity
      4. System Infrastructure
      5. Summary: How Companies Can Improve on the Dimension of Systems
    4. Dimension 4: Performance Measurement
      1. How Is Performance Measured?
      2. How Is Performance Rewarded?
      3. Summary: How Companies Can Improve on the Dimension of Performance Measurement
    5. Summary
  14. Chapter 10 Bringing It Back to Demand/Supply Integration: Managing the Demand Review
    1. Phase I: Preparation of Initial Forecast
    2. Phase II: Gap Analysis
    3. Phase III: Demand Review Meeting
    4. Summary
  15. Index