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Decision Equity by Piyush Kumar

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Is the Model Forward Prescriptive or Backward Diagnostic?

At a very fundamental level, there are two ways of building mental models of cause and effect. We can build them from left to right—that is, from the cause to the effect, something we refer to as forward prescriptive. Or we can build them from right to left, that is, from effect to causes, something that we refer to as backward diagnostic. While both approaches should ultimately link causes and effects, a natural question to ask is whether there would be a difference between the two. One can certainly argue that mathematically speaking, the forward prescriptive models and backward diagnostic models should converge. Further, would the data not tell the same story whether we think one way ...

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