A
Ambiguity, 22–23
Assessment
definition, 47
experts (see Experts assessment)
uncertainty (see Uncertainty assessment)
B
Bush Grid, 22
C
Career decisions, 25–26
Closed decisions, 31–33
Continuous probability
continuous distribution, 48–49
expected values, 50
p10, p50, p50 assessment, 49
rain uncertainty, 49–50
roll back tree, 50
Cost of goods sold (COGS), 42
Cumulative probability graph, 51–52
decision tree
McNamee–Celona method, 87
Offers A and B curve, 89
“one-line” formula, 89
skeleton tree, Offer A, 86
Swanson-McGill weighting, 87–88
IRR, 85
Monte Carlo simulation, 85
advantage and disadvantage, 90
vs. decision tree solution, 93
Great Recession, 92
Offers A, B, and C curve, 91–92
PERCENTILE function, 91
RAND() function, 90
@Risk™
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