How Much Is It Worth to Know?
Once we have built our decision tree(s) and our model, we can explore the value of information and the value of control. The traditional way decision analysts explain these concepts is to relate
• the value of information to a “real” clairvoyant or oracle (who can answer a question but will charge us for the information) and
• the value of control to a real wizard who can perform one specific miracle.
The key concept behind both of these tools is that there is no value of information or control unless you are willing to change your decision. In other words, if you have already made up your mind concerning your decision, more information has no value!
Consider the alarm lights and ...