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Decision Analysis for Managers

Book Description

Everybody has to make decisions—they are unavoidable. Yet we receive little or no education or training on how to make decisions. Business decisions can be dif_ cult: which people to hire, which product lines or facilities to expand and which to sell or shut down, which bid or proposal to accept, which process to implement, how much R&D to invest in, which environmental projects should receive the highest priority, etc. This book gives you all the tools you need to… • clarify and reach alignment on goals and objectives and understand trade-offs in reaching those goals, • develop and examine alternatives, • systematically analyze the effects of risk and uncertainty, and • maximize the chances of achieving your goals and objectives. Success (getting what you want) depends on luck and good decision making. You can’t control your luck, but you can maximize your odds by making the best possible decisions, and this book gets you there. Broadly speaking, this book organizes and presents otherwise formal decision-making tools in an intuitively understandable fashion. The presentation is informal, but the concepts and tools are research-based and formally accepted.

Table of Contents

  1. Cover
  2. Half Title
  3. Title Page
  4. Copyright Page
  5. Abstract
    1. Abstract
    2. Keywords
  6. Contents
  7. Acknowledgments
  8. Preface
  9. Chapter 1 What Is Decision Analysis?: And Why Should I Care?
    1. Where Did Decision Analysis Come from?
  10. Chapter 2 How to Start Framing a DA Problem: How Can We Work Together?
    1. Facilitation: PowerPoint or Whiteboard?
    2. About Facilitation
    3. Situation Analysis
    4. Stakeholder Analysis
  11. Chapter 3 The Objectives Hierarchy: What Do We Want?
    1. Where Did the Objectives Hierarchy Come from?
    2. Example Objectives Hierarchies
  12. Chapter 4 Decisions and Alternatives: What Can We Do?
  13. Chapter 5 Influence Diagrams: What Do We Know?
    1. Facilitating and Drawing the Influence Diagram
    2. Implications for the Manager
  14. Chapter 6 Uncertainty Assessment: The Boundary Between Known and Unknown
    1. Discrete Probability
    2. Managing Cost and Schedule Uncertainties
  15. Chapter 7 Building a Deterministic Model: Time to Run the Numbers
    1. Implications for the Manager
  16. Chapter 8 Tornado Diagrams: Figuring Out What Is Important
    1. How to Develop a Tornado Graph
    2. Implications for the Manager
  17. Chapter 9 Cumulative Probability: Looking at the Range of Outcomes
    1. Solving the Decision Tree
    2. Using Simulation to Develop S-curves
  18. Chapter 10 Value of Information: How Much Is It Worth to Know?
    1. Implications for the Manager
  19. Chapter 11 Multi attribute Decision Analysis: There’s More to Life than Money
    1. Multiattribute Example
    2. Purchasing Decisions
    3. Implications for the Manager
  20. Chapter 12 Other Topics: More Th ings to Think About
    1. Portfolio DA Projects
  21. Notes
    1. Chapter 2
    2. Chapter 3
    3. Chapter 6
    4. Chapter 7
    5. Chapter 9
    6. Chapter 12
  22. References
  23. Index
  24. Ad Page
  25. Back Cover