29. I Knew It All the Time: The Hindsight Bias

Hindsight is an exact science.

—G. Bellamy

Darren and Jenny were on their first trip to France. After spending a week in Paris, they rented a car and began a five-day tour of the Loire Valley. Darren agreed to drive as long as Jenny would do the navigating. Armed with several maps and her English-French dictionary, Jenny began plotting their route. However, not more than an hour out of Paris, the couple was having trouble finding the road that would take them to their first stop in Montrichard. They pulled over to a rest stop, and together they studied the maps. Nothing made much sense. Jenny thought they should take N20. Darren wasn’t convinced. “The maps sure aren’t clear,” said Darren. “I don’t ...

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