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Data Analysis with Open Source Tools by Philipp K. Janert

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Chapter 12. Simulations

IN THIS CHAPTER, WE LOOK AT SIMULATIONS AS A WAY TO UNDERSTAND DATA. IT MAY SEEM STRANGE TO FIND simulations included in a book on data analysis: don’t simulations just generate even more data that needs to be analyzed? Not necessarily—as we will see, simulations in the form of resampling methods provide a family of techniques for extracting information from data. In addition, simulations can be useful when developing and validating models, and in this way, they facilitate our understanding of data. Finally, in the context of this chapter we can take a brief look at a few other relevant topics, such as discrete event simulations and queueing theory.

A technical comment: I assume that your programming environment includes a random-number generator—not only for uniformly distributed random numbers but also for other distributions (this is a pretty safe bet). I also assume that this random-number generator produces random numbers of sufficiently high quality. This is probably a reasonable assumption, but there’s no guarantee: although the theory of random-number generators is well understood, broken implementations apparently continue to ship. Most books on simulation methods will contain information on random-number generators—look there if you feel that you need more detail.

A Warm-Up Question

As a warm-up to demonstrate how simulations can help us analyze data, consider the following example. We are given a data set with the results of eight tosses of a coin: ...

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