Commodity Trader's Almanac 2013: For Active Traders of Futures, Forex, Stocks, Options, and ETFs

JANUARY ALMANAC

STOCKS AND BONDS

S&P 500 has shown a tendency to see mild declines after the New Year (page 138), as investors sell positions to defer capital gain taxes on profits, but the overall strength from October can last into April. Traders can look to take advantage of the January break (page 22). This trade has a reliable trend registering a 73.3% success rate. 30-year Treasury bond prices have a tendency to continue their decline (page 106), as investors are reallocating money into stocks.

ENERGY

January tends to see continued weakness in crude oil (page 143) and in natural gas (page 145) before the typical bottom is posted in February. Traders should prepare for the strongest buy month for oil and natural gas (pages 26, 32, and 124). Heating Oil tends to decline in January into early February 69.7% of the time since 1980 with the exception of 2011 and 2012 (see pages 14, 124 and 147).

METALS

Gold has a strong history of making a seasonal peak from mid- to late January into early February. Shorting gold during this time period has resulted in a cumulative profit ...