Commodity Trader's Almanac 2013: For Active Traders of Futures, Forex, Stocks, Options, and ETFs

SEPTEMBER ALMANAC

STOCKS AND BONDS

S&P's have shown a tendency to see mid-month selloffs lasting into early October (page 138). Even during the big rebound in 2009, S&P's posted a mid-September high and declined until October 2. 30-year Treasury bonds tend to rise when stock prices tend to decline (page 142).

ENERGY

Crude oil tops out in September with the peak driving and hurricane seasons behind us. Refineries begin to focus on the production of heating oil and less on gasoline, thereby reducing the amount of crude oil inventories. Selling the February futures contract on or before September 12 and holding until on or about December 10 has produced 18 winning trades in the last 29 years (page 82). Natural gas is in the midst of its best two-month span from September through October (page 145). In mild hurricane seasons, heating oil prices see declines towards mid-month as threats of damage and refinery disruptions dissipate. Traders should prepare to go short as October marks seasonal peaks from pre-winter inventory buildup (page 92).

METALS

Liquidate the long gold position ...