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Causality, Probability, and Time by Samantha Kleinberg

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6

Token Causality

Why did Alice develop heart disease in her fifties? What led to the volatility in the U.S. stock market in August 2011? Who shot John F. Kennedy? The inference method described so far aims to find causal relationships that hold in general, while these questions seek causal explanations for one-time events. We do not want to know what causes heart disease, stock market crashes, or death by shooting in general but rather aim to determine why each of these particular events happened. This is a challenging problem, as we need to make such determinations with incomplete and often conflicting information. Few algorithmic methods have been developed to automate this process, yet this may have wide applications to situations with ...

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