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Causality, Probability, and Time by Samantha Kleinberg

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3

Probability, Logic, and Probabilistic Temporal Logic

3.1. Probability

For more detail on theories of probability see Gillies (2000).

Whether we want to determine the likelihood of a stock market crash or if people with a given gene have a higher risk of a disease, we need to understand the details of how to calculate and assess probabilities. But first, what exactly are probabilities and where do they come from? There are two primary views. The frequentist view says that probabilities relate to the proportion of occurrences in a series of events. For example, the probability of a coin coming up heads being 1/2 means that with a large number of coin flips, half should be heads and half tails. The probability then corresponds to how often something ...

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