Some Simple Examples of Business Extrapolation

A Means-Based Example of Statistical Extrapolation

This section gives an initial example of the extrapolation of statistical results to business values and decisions, based on simple averages.
Say you are doing an analysis for a potential new drug. The following is information you currently hold:
  • You calculate a mean lifetime net present value of customer spend, if prescribed, of $1,800 and also get a 95% bootstrapped confidence interval for this mean of $1,000 to $2,550.
  • There is an estimated potential for 15,000 customers. Although R&D has been completed, the drug production will have an initial development cost of $8 million and production costs per customer of $500.
As a ...

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