Book description
The complete guide to the principles and practice of risk quantification for business applications.
The assessment and quantification of risk provide an indispensable part of robust decision-making; to be effective, many professionals need a firm grasp of both the fundamental concepts and of the tools of the trade. Business Risk and Simulation Modelling in Practice is a comprehensive, in-depth, and practical guide that aims to help business risk managers, modelling analysts and general management to understand, conduct and use quantitative risk assessment and uncertainty modelling in their own situations. Key content areas include:
Detailed descriptions of risk assessment processes, their objectives and uses, possible approaches to risk quantification, and their associated decision-benefits and organisational challenges.
Principles and techniques in the design of risk models, including the similarities and differences with traditional financial models, and the enhancements that risk modelling can provide.
In depth coverage of the principles and concepts in simulation methods, the statistical measurement of risk, the use and selection of probability distributions, the creation of dependency relationships, the alignment of risk modelling activities with general risk assessment processes, and a range of Excel modelling techniques.
The implementation of simulation techniques using both Excel/VBA macros and the @RISK Excel add-in. Each platform may be appropriate depending on the context, whereas the core modelling concepts and risk assessment contexts are largely the same in each case. Some additional features and key benefits of using @RISK are also covered.
Business Risk and Simulation Modelling in Practice reflects the author's many years in training and consultancy in these areas. It provides clear and complete guidance, enhanced with an expert perspective. It uses approximately one hundred practical and real-life models to demonstrate all key concepts and techniques; these are accessible on the companion website.
Table of contents
- Preface
- About the Author
- About the Website
-
PART I An Introduction to Risk Assessment – Its Uses, Processes, Approaches, Benefits and Challenges
- CHAPTER 1 The Context and Uses of Risk Assessment
- CHAPTER 2 Key Stages of the General Risk Assessment Process
- CHAPTER 3 Approaches to Risk Assessment and Quantification
-
CHAPTER 4 Full Integrated Risk Modelling: Decision-Support Benefits
- 4.1 Key Characteristics of Full Models
- 4.2 Overview of the Benefits of Full Risk Modelling
- 4.3 Creating More Accurate and Realistic Models
- 4.4 Using the Range of Possible Outcomes to Enhance Decision-Making
- 4.5 Supporting Transparent Assumptions and Reducing Biases
- 4.6 Facilitating Group Work and Communication
- CHAPTER 5 Organisational Challenges Relating to Risk Modelling
-
PART II The Design of Risk Models – Principles, Processes and Methodology
-
CHAPTER 6 Principles of Simulation Methods
- 6.1 Core Aspects of Simulation: A Descriptive Example
- 6.2 Simulation as a Risk Modelling Tool
- 6.3 Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis: Relationship to Simulation
- 6.4 Optimisation Analysis and Modelling: Relationship to Simulation
- 6.5 Analytic and Other Numerical Methods
- 6.6 The Applicability of Simulation Methods
- CHAPTER 7 Core Principles of Risk Model Design
- CHAPTER 8 Measuring Risk using Statistics of Distributions
- CHAPTER 9 The Selection of Distributions for Use in Risk Models
- CHAPTER 10 Creating Samples from Distributions
- CHAPTER 11 Modelling Dependencies between Sources of Risk
-
CHAPTER 6 Principles of Simulation Methods
-
PART III Getting Started with Simulation in Practice
-
CHAPTER 12 Using Excel/VBA for Simulation Modelling
- 12.1 Description of Example Model and Uncertainty Ranges
- 12.2 Creating and Running a Simulation: Core Steps
- 12.3 Basic Results Analysis
- 12.4 Other Simple Features
- 12.5 Generalising the Core Capabilities
- 12.6 Optimising Model Structure and Layout
- 12.7 Bringing it All Together: Examples Using the Simulation Template
- 12.8 Further Possible uses of VBA
-
CHAPTER 13 Using @RISK for Simulation Modelling
- 13.1 Description of Example Model and Uncertainty Ranges
- 13.2 Creating and Running a Simulation: Core Steps and Basic Icons
- 13.3 Simulation Control: An Introduction
- 13.4 Further Core Features
- 13.5 Working with Macros and the @RISK Macro Language
- 13.6 Additional In-Built Applications and Features: An Introduction
- 13.7 Benefits of @RISK over Excel/VBA Approaches: A Brief Summary
-
CHAPTER 12 Using Excel/VBA for Simulation Modelling
- Index
- EULA
Product information
- Title: Business Risk and Simulation Modelling in Practice: Using Excel, VBA and @RISK
- Author(s):
- Release date: September 2015
- Publisher(s): Wiley
- ISBN: 9781118904053
You might also like
book
Using Excel for Business and Financial Modelling, 3rd Edition
A hands-on guide to using Excel in the business context First published in 2012, Using Excel …
book
Advanced Modelling in Finance Using Excel and VBA
This new and unique book demonstrates that Excel and VBA can play an important role in …
book
Financial Simulation Modeling in Excel
"I've worked with simulation in business for over 20 years, and Allman really nails it with …
book
Handbook in Monte Carlo Simulation: Applications in Financial Engineering, Risk Management, and Economics
An accessible treatment of Monte Carlo methods, techniques, and applications in the field of finance and …