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Business Analysis with Microsoft® Excel, Second Edition by Conrad Carlberg

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Using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA Approach: When Excel's Built-In Functions Won't Do

Box-Jenkins methods,often called ARIMA (for AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) models, have much broader scope than simple moving average, regression or smoothing forecasts, and they can often remove most of the drawbacks of the approaches discussed previously.

However, Box-Jenkins methods are also much more complex,well beyond the scope of this book to cover in detail.This chapter discusses only the preliminary phase of these methods, the identification phase.Completing the identification phase helps you to decide whether to make your forecast using a program written specifically for Box-Jenkins,or whether you can choose a regression or smoothing approach that ...

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