Making Sure You Have a Useful Baseline

A baseline is a set of numeric observations made over time. Examples of baselines are:

  • Monthly revenue totals for the past four years

  • Daily hospital patient census for the past six months

  • Average annual liquor consumption since 1970

  • Number of calls to customer service per hour for the past week

In short, a baseline consists of a set of quantities measured over time. From the standpoint of forecasting, baselines have four important technical characteristics:

  • A baseline is ordered from the earliest observation to the most recent. This is a fairly simple requirement to meet, but you must meet it. If you have your measurements in a table where rows represent years and columns represent months, it's best to rearrange ...

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