A conundrum

A tribe performs an elaborate rain dance every year. And every year the heavens open and it rains. Members of the tribe naturally believe that it rains because their dance has appeased the spirits. Is there another explanation? More importantly, how would you be able to prove to the chief that the dance and the rain are not necessarily connected? Can you see a connection between the tribe’s attitude to the rain dance ritual and our relationship with our own safety behaviours?

Safety behaviours often allow us to create eminently testable predictions:

  • ‘If I don’t look directly ahead and keep reciting the Lord’s prayer I am bound to fall…’
  • ‘Unless I have a drink to relax me beforehand I will come across as awkward and tongue-tied…’ ...

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