Contents

Introduction

Section 1: What's Old Is New Again

Section 1A: Market History and the Long View

In Search of History and a Word Processor That Works

Kondratieff and the Long Cycle

The Phony War

Ancient History

History, Market Deaths, and the Cult of the Equity

Section 1B: Fire and Ice

The Fire and Ice Debate

Ice Creeps On

A World Lit Only by Fire?

Section 1C: Bubbles and Panics

Manias, Panics, Crashes

Tulipomania

Anarchy

Life on the Good Ship Swine

The New New Thing

When?

Section 1D: Wars and Rumors of War

The Last Supper

The Beam That Broke the Camel's Back

Bioterrorism and the Case for Higher P/E Ratios?

Section 1E: Geopolitics

Popcorn and the Decline of the West

Diary of Mikhail S. Gorbachev—Sunday, May 4, 1986

Close-Up

Diary of Mikhail Gorbachev, May 1987

The Diary of Deng Xiaoping: Wistful and Wishful Musings

Bottomless Pits and Nuts with Missiles

Diary of Saddam Hussein

Islamic Fundamentalism

Section 2: Economics and Investing

Section 2A: Economics and Policy

The Evolution of the Supply Side

The Tax Cut Misconception

Running the Movie of the Seventies Backward

The Piper Must Still Be Paid

The Old President with the Right Intuitions

What Kind of People Are We?

Emerging Markets Are Only for the Brave

Section 2B: Investment Discipline & Tactics

Discipline and Reading

How to Lose the Winner's Game

You Gotta Believe

Section 2C: Market Psychology and Investing Philosophy

Contrarianism

Electronic War Rooms and Lying in the Sun

God Is a Mathematician? The Fibonacci Numbers ...

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