Contents

Preface

1 Developing and Implementing Trading Systems

Introduction

What’s New in This Edition

The Usual Disclaimer

What Is a Trading System?

What Is a Trading Program?

Classification of Return Generation Processes

Comparison: Discretionary versus Mechanical System Trader

Why Should You Use a Trading System?

Robust Trading Systems: TOPS COLA

What Is a “Good” Trading Program?

How Do You Implement a Trading System?

Is Systematic Trading Easy?

Who Wins? Who Loses?

Appendix to Chapter 1: A Brief Technical Analysis Primer

Introduction

Assumptions of Technical Analysis

Typical Price Patterns and Chart Formations

Measured Objectives from Chart Formations

Statistical Review

Moving Averages

Oscillators

Price Channels and Bands

Trendiness Indicators

Dynamic Indicators

Estimating Long-Term Support and Resistance

2 Principles of Trading System Design

Introduction

What Are Your Trading Beliefs?

Six Cardinal Rules

Rule 1: Positive Expectation

Rule 2: A Small Number of Rules

Rule 3: Robust Trading Rules

Rule 4: Trading Multiple Contracts

Rule 5: Risk Control, Money Management, and Portfolio Design

Rule 6: Fully Mechanical System

Summary

3 Foundations of System Design

Introduction

Diagnosing Market Trends

To Follow the Trend or Not?

To Optimize or Not To Optimize?

Initial Stop: Solution or Problem?

Does Your Design Control Risks?

Data! Handle with Care!

Choosing Orders for Entries and Exits

Understanding Summary of Test Results

What the Performance Summary Does Not Show

Some Avoidable ...

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