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Being Right or Making Money, 3rd Edition

Book Description

STAY A STEP AHEAD OF THE MARKETS BY REJECTING GUESSES ABOUT THE FUTURE AND TRUSTING TECHNIQUES THAT WORK

Today there are as many investment opinions as there are people. But as many a scorned investor can attest, predicting the future isn't easy. In fact, Being Right or Making Money, Third Edition explains that reliably predicting the future is often not even possible. The good news is that it isn't necessary either. Once you stop trying so hard to be right about the future, you can start making money.

Being Right or Making Money, Third Edition contains a position trading strategy that any serious investor will want to keep nearby. Using the unbiased, objective standard in this book, you can stay on-target for profit in all market conditions. You'll learn how to create asset allocation models in both stocks and bonds, how to make sense out of contrarian opinion, and how to use indicators to keep you focused, no matter what.

You won't find any shock-and-awe investing tactics in this book. Instead, Being Right or Making Money, Third Edition presents the solid trading model that has made Ned Davis Research Group a go-to source for market wisdom.

Table of Contents

  1. Foreword
  2. Preface
  3. Acknowledgments
  4. Chapter 1: Being Right or Making Money
    1. Bad News about Forecasting (Being Right)
    2. Good News about Making Money
    3. Being Right and Other Investment Techniques Are Overrated and Are Not the Keys to Success
    4. The Four Real Keys to Making Money
    5. The Battle for Investment Survival and Handling Mistakes
    6. Stories of Five Successful Winners
    7. Making Our Own Reality
    8. The Ned Davis Research Response to All This
    9. Timing Models
    10. What Is Contrary Opinion and How to Use It
    11. History and Risk Management
    12. The Rest of the Book
    13. Notes
  5. Chapter 2: The Model-Building Process
    1. The Model-Building Process
    2. Where to Start: Model Inputs
    3. Sentiment and Valuation Indicators
    4. Monetary Indicators
    5. Economic Indicators
    6. Internal Indicators
    7. Moving Averages
    8. Crossings and Slopes
    9. Momentum
    10. Putting Indicators Together
    11. Conclusion
  6. Chapter 3: A Stock Market Model
    1. A Stock Market Model
    2. Overview of the Fab Five
    3. Tape Component
    4. The Final Tape Component
    5. The Sentiment Component
    6. Sentiment Summary
    7. The Monetary Component
    8. Monetary Component Summary
    9. Fab Five Combo Component
    10. Combo Model Summary
    11. Summing Up the Fab Five
    12. How We Use the Fab Five
  7. Chapter 4: A Simple Model for Bonds
    1. A Slight Modification
    2. Summary
  8. Chapter 5: Potential Bear Market in 2014; Bearish Secular Residue and Then Buying Opportunity
    1. Preparing for a (Say, 20 Percent) Bear Market
    2. Sentiment and Valuation Indicators, If One Wanted to Be Bearish
    3. Other Sentiment Indicators
    4. Valuation Problems
    5. Trend Indicators to Plan for a Potential Pullback—Follow the Leaders
    6. More Leading Indicators of Market Peaks
    7. Four-Year Presidential Cycle Risks
    8. Macro Backdrop: Debt Bubble Update
    9. Watching Fed Policy to Prepare for a Major Pullback in 2014
    10. What Do Demographics Say?
  9. Chapter 6: The Aging World: Economic and Market Implications
    1. Global Population View
    2. Why Is the Population Getting Older?
    3. Demographic Developments
    4. Implications of Aging Populations
    5. Ways to Offset a Declining Workforce
    6. Conclusion
  10. Chapter 7: United States Energy Independence—A Game-Changer
    1. What the United States Consumes
    2. The Thorn in the Side of Energy Independence—Oil and Transportation
    3. Choosing the Right Fuel
    4. Why Electric Could Be a Game-Changer
    5. Why Electric Has Yet to Take Off
    6. How Far Ned Could Go
    7. Nat Gas—An Indirect Play on Electric
    8. The Immediate Impact of Abundant U.S. Energy Resources
    9. A Potential Headache for the U.S. Manufacturing Resurgence
    10. Conclusion
  11. About the Author
  12. About the Contributors
  13. Index
  14. End User License Agreement