Beating the Global Odds: Successful Decision-making in a Confused and Troubled World

More Has Become (Much) Less

I don’t claim to be a prophet, and in fact I know I still spend far too much time reacting to incoming developments rather than anticipating them. On the other hand, in 2005 I authored a book entitled World Out of Balance. Despite the continuing halcyon days of economic boom, I took the then-unfashionable view that all was not well with the world and gave some specific advice about what business leaders needed to do to adapt their companies, and, more importantly, their thinking, to some volatile new realities. In hindsight, I wish I had been dead wrong about the future that would unfold. Seven years on, the pace of change has only accelerated, and rather than being brought back into balance, our world has undergone a further series of upheavals that have shaken us to the core.

Not surprisingly, people (and or­ganizations) everywhere are feeling dis­oriented, bewildered, and even paralyzed. From crisis and scandal to the proliferation of product choice and the relentless 24/7 information smog of always-on news, e-mail, and social media, we are not feeling especially smarter or wiser. On the contrary, our ability to think and act decisively with the future in mind has diminished. Imagine having—at last—the entire knowledge of human civilization at your fingertips, and finding that it basically gives you a migraine. Michael Lederer, an American writer who lives in Berlin and Dubrovnik, Croatia (son of a dear, late friend of mine), calls this Mundo Overloadus ...