Bayesian Methods for Management and Business: Pragmatic Solutions for Real Problems

Preface

The use of Bayesian statistics has exploded over the past two decades. Researchers in many disciplines have used Bayesian statistics to reveal new insights and understand difficult problems. However, there are few discussions of Bayesian statistics that are focused on its practical applications to business and management. As a result, people with an orientation toward business and management problems were left to bridge the theory/application gap themselves with little guidance. In this book, we show how Bayesian statistics can help generate insights into business and management data. The book features a practical orientation with In Practice sections that go into detail the use of Bayesian approaches with actual business data.

On a personal note, I have spent countless hours to make this book, as much as possible, one that blends concepts and intuition along with mathematics. There is math in this book like in all statistically oriented books. However, it is my belief that an understanding of every formula is not required for getting something out of this book. As an analogy, you may have gone to a foreign country where you did not understand every word but were still able to get around. Here we will see that modern Bayesian methods use Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) methods to perform much of the more difficult math involving calculus. Whenever you see the abbreviation MCMC, you can also think of it as the abbreviation for “Makes Calculus More Convenient” or “Makes ...