Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition, 3rd Edition

Part II: Fundamentals of Bayesian Data Analysis

For most problems of applied Bayesian statistics, the data analyst must go beyond the simple structure of prior distribution, likelihood, and posterior distribution. In Chapter 6, we discuss methods of assessing the sensitivity of posterior inferences to model assumptions and checking the fit of a probability model to data and substantive information. Model checking allows an escape from the tautological aspect of formal approaches to Bayesian inference, under which all conclusions are conditional ...