CHAPTER 12 The Future of Nanotechnology
Whereas Chapter 10 was mainly devoted to the prediction of substitutional and incremental nanotechnology, in this chapter we address the long-term future, for which the traditional methods of economic forecasting are of little use.
As pointed out by Toth-Fejel,1 important ways to predict the future include:
- Via prophets: who are individuals with charisma, a track record of successful predictions (ideally based on an intelligible chain of reasoning) and the courage to contradict popular opinion. The value of the prophet's work might be primarily derived from a cogent marshaling of relevant data; the prophecy is important when it is accompanied by a similar creative leap as when a theory emerges from a ...