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Applied Bayesian Modelling, 2nd Edition by Peter Congdon

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Exercises

10.1 In Example 10.1, apply a Weibull rather than Gompertz survival model to the mice death times. Compare the log pseudo marginal likelihoods of the two models and the chi-square statistic comparing actual deaths and posterior mean predicted deaths in the eight intervals of 100 days. The chi-square statistic under the Weibull should deteriorate, as early deaths are overpredicted and later deaths underpredicted.

10.2 In Example 10.2, adapt the BUGS code to include an intercept and using a car.normal prior for centred c10-math-0519 effects (constrained to sum to zero).

10.3 In Example 10.2, modify the piecewise exponential model to allow an interval specific treatment effect, c10-math-0520. A random walk prior, analogous to that used for c10-math-0521, may also be used as the prior on this varying treatment effect. Report evidence on the profile of the estimated c10-math-0522 and the changed LPML.

10.4 In Example 10.4 (marrow transplant survival), assess covariate effects and LPML resulting from a logistic assumption on the errors (log-logistic for ).

10.5 In Example 10.6 (first intercourse) compare the existing model with one ...

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