Tell me which of these situations is more likely to bring you great bodily harm:
Situation One: Going to the zoo and photographing lions from behind a protective embankment.
Situation Two: Going to Africa and photographing a hungry lion in his own habitat with a necklace of pork chops dangling around your neck.
That was a no-brainer, right?
If all you are looking to achieve is to get a picture of a lion, while minimizing your risk of bodily harm, you are going to the zoo. Forecasting or predicting relative risk is easy. Now, let’s change the circumstances a little bit. I am going to pay you $10 for a picture of a lion from a zoo, but I ...