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Analysis Without Paralysis: 12 Tools to Make Better Strategic Decisions, Second Edition by Craig S. Fleisher, Babette E. Bensoussan

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10. Scenario Analysis

Description and Purpose

A scenario is a detailed description of what the future may look like. It is based on a set of assumptions that are critical to the evolution of an economy, industry, market, or technology. Scenario analysis is a structured way of developing multiple scenarios that help executives address two common decision-making errors—underprediction and overprediction of change. The objectives of scenario analysis are building a shared baseline for strategic thinking, enhancing flexibility in long-term planning, and providing strategic early warning.

This type of analysis has been in place for decades and is used extensively in a range of industries and by a variety of different organizations (business, not-for-profit, ...

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