Advances in Intelligence and Security Informatics

Chapter 4

Forecasting Group Behavior via Probabilistic Plan Inference

Group behavior prediction is an emerging research and application field in intelligence and security informatics, which studies computational methods for the automated prediction of what a group might do. As many applications could benefit from forecasting an entity's behavior for decision making, assessment, and training, it has gained increasing attention in recent years. Its applications range from homeland and national security to government policy evaluation and market analysis to pandemic and disaster response planning, to name a few. Research on group behavior prediction centers on building predictive models for socio-cultural-political modeling, which includes three ...