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Accelerate: Building Strategic Agility for a Faster-Moving World by John P. Kotter

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NINE

THE (INEVITABLE) FUTURE OF STRATEGY

Predicting the future is a perilous activity. But if you look at enough data, you can see there are some trends pointing in a pretty clear direction.

EXPONENTIAL CHANGE

Consider, once again, the graphs at the start of chapter 1. These show not only increasing change in a number of arenas but also an exponential trend in the amount of change. More is coming at us faster. One can logically make an argument that the trend lines in these graphs will flatten out or go into a downward slope at some point soon. But the argument that a flattening or downward trend will continue for any significant time, before the numbers flash upward again, is not a very convincing one.

In fact, it is very difficult to look ...

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