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Abnormal Returns: Winning Strategies from the Frontlines of the Investing Blogosphere by Tadas Viskanta

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Behaviors and Biases

NEARLY EVERY STUDY OF FORECASTING IN ECONOMICS AND FINANCE shows that we human beings are poor predictors of the future. Much of what passes for analysis on Wall Street is really just veiled, half-formed forecasts about the future. As Barry Ritholtz writes: “I wish an SEC-mandated disclosure accompanied all pundit forecasts: ‘The undersigned states that he has no idea what’s going to happen in the future, and hereby declares that this prediction is merely a wildly unsupported speculation.’ ”1 Given our collective inability ...

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